Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures closed Friday with most contracts 4 – 6 1/2 cents higher, as Dec came back to only lose a half cent on the week. Pre-weekend profit taking gets some of the credit. The CFTC report on Friday showed the spec funds holding a new record net short position of -230,556 contracts as of November 14. The national US average cash price on Thursday was $2.98 1/4, 4 1/4 cents lower than this time last year. The average basis was -38 1/4 cents, which is 8 cents stronger than the harvest low. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange estimated that the Argentine corn crop was 35.4% planted, vs. 40% this time last year. AgRural estimates that the first corn crop in Brazil is 63% planted, compared to 79% last year and the average of 65%.

Dec 17 Corn closed at $3.43, up 6 1/2 cents,

Mar 18 Corn closed at $3.55, up 6 cents,

May 18 Corn closed at $3.63 1/2, up 6 cents

Jul 18 Corn closed at $3.71 1/4, up 6 cents

Soybean futures settled with strong gains of 15 to 18 1/2 cents in most contracts, as Jan was +3 1/2 cents on the week. December meal was up $7.70/ton, with nearby bean oil a point higher. Managed money spec funds cut their net long soybean position 24,188 contracts in soybean futures and options as of Nov 14. That net position stood at 22,550 contracts on that date. The national average US soybean cash price on Thursday was $8.95 1/4, 20 3/4 cents lower than the same week last year. The BAGE estimates that Argentina’s soybean planting season is 23.8% completed, nearing last year’s 24.2% pace. The Brazil soybean crop is 73% planted, even with last year and above the average of 68%, according to AgRural.

Jan 18 Soybeans closed at $9.90 1/2, up 18 1/2 cents,

Mar 18 Soybeans closed at $10.01 1/2, up 18 1/4 cents,

May 18 Soybeans closed at $10.11, up 18 1/4 cents,

Aug 18 Soybeans closed at $10.20 1/4, up 17 1/4 cents,

Dec 17 Soybean Meal closed at $318.20, up $7.70,

Dec 17 Soybean Oil closed at $34.44, up $0.01

Wheat futures were 3 to 5 1/2 cents higher in most contracts on Friday. The Friday Commitment of Traders report showed the big spec funds easing out of some of their short Chicago SRW positions, trimming them 16,509 contracts in the week ending November 14. They were still net short 108,576 contracts at that time. The French winter wheat crop is 95% planted according to the country’s AgriMer, with the crop rated at 97% gd/ex. Forecasts for Australia are showing mainly dry weather over the next week, helping harvest there to move along.

Dec 17 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.27 1/4, up 5 3/4 cents,

Dec 17 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.22, up 5 cents,

Dec 17 MGEX Wheat closed at $6.35, up 4 3/4 cents

Live cattle futures finished the week with most contracts 45 to 90 cents in the red. Feeder cattle futures were down $1 to $2.175. The CME feeder cattle index will be delayed due to reporting issues with the USDA cash data. Wholesale beef prices were mixed on Friday afternoon. Choice was down $3 at $207.24, with select boxes 2 cents higher at $187.85. USDA indicated weekly FI cattle slaughter at 639,000 head through Saturday, 16,000 larger than a week ago and 10,000 above the same week in 2016. The Cattle on Feed report showed Nov 1 on feed numbers at 11.332 million head 6.25% larger than last year. Placements of cattle in October were 10.23% larger than a year ago at 2.393 million head, with marketings of 1.801 million head, 5.63% above last year.

Dec 17 Cattle closed at $118.850, down $0.700,

Feb 18 Cattle closed at $124.675, down $0.450,

Apr 18 Cattle closed at $124.875, down $0.500,

Jan 18 Feeder Cattle closed at $151.725, down $2.175

Mar 18 Feeder Cattle closed at $150.125, down $1.975

Apr 18 Feeder Cattle closed at $150.175, down $2.050

Lean hog futures ended the week with most contracts mixed, as Dec was 55 cents higher on the day. The CME Lean Hog Index for 11/15 was down 40 cents to $65.97. The national base hog average price was 59 cents lower at $56.96 this afternoon. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was 41 cents higher at $80.96 in the Friday afternoon report. The belly led the way, up $1.69. The weekly USDA AMS hog slaughter report showed 2,473,000 through Saturday. That is down 22,000 from the previous week and 54,000 fewer than the same week in 2016, mainly on less Saturday slaughter.

Dec 17 Hogs closed at $60.650, up $0.550,

Feb 18 Hogs closed at $67.075, up $0.500

Apr 18 Hogs closed at $71.150, up $0.275

Cotton futures saw gains of 17 to 57 points on Friday, as Dec was 1.06% higher than a week ago. Support is coming from a weaker US dollar, down 239 points today. The Commitment of Traders report showed the spec funds trimming 2,855 contracts from their net long last week, taking it to 42,028 contracts as of November 14. The USDA Adjusted World Price (AWP) was updated to 61.37 cents/lb, 1 point lower than the previous week. Online cash cotton sales reported by The Seam increased to 10,264 bales, with prices up to 67.09 cents/lb. The Cotlook A index for November 14 was 5 points higher to 79.40 cents/lb.

Dec 17 Cotton closed at 69.780, up 57 points,

Mar 18 Cotton closed at 69.350, up 17 points

Jul 18 Cotton closed at 70.820, up 25 points

Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
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